Everything seems to indicate that Brazil will finally produce more soybeans than the United States in the 2019/2020 crop. The country has been knocking at the door for at least four years, it seems that now, with the expected fall in the North American crop, that Brazil will surpass its competitor, according to the forecast made by the consulting firm INTL FCStone.
In its first estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop 2019/2020, FCStone forecasts a production record of 121.4 million tons, a growth of 5.5% compared to 2018/2019.
“This volume would be the result of a record planted area of 36.4 million hectares, with the increase in planting in several states, representing an average growth of 1.6% compared to the 2018/2019 cycle,” says the analyst, Ana Luiza Lodi.
Noteworthy is the expansion of the crop over pastures in Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. In Mato Grosso do Sul, there has also been the incorporation of some areas of sugar cane.
In Rio Grande do Sul, the expectation is that rice will lose some areas to soybean this year, mainly in the southern half of the state, as well as some pasture area. In Bahia, the incorporation of new planted areas is expected, as well as the expansion over cotton.
According to estimates released by the consulting firm this Thursday (05), domestic consumption of soybeans should continue to grow with the production of meat and the increase in the mandatory blend for biodiesel. Domestic demand is expected to reach 46.5 million tons.
“As for exports, a larger crop opens room for growth in shipments, but everything will depend on the volume of the Chinese purchases and whether a trade agreement will be reached soon or not,” says analyst Ana Luiza. With exports of 75 million tons, the final stocks of the 2019/20 crop would remain at low levels, estimated at 1.62 million tons.
Source: https://canalrural.uol.com.br
